I'm back!

I am pulling a Michael Jordan by unretiring!

I heard a new radio ad by Team America PAC (Tancredo's group run by Bay Buchannan). Can you say dumb? It made statements like: "Chris Cannon says he is against amnesty" and then there is canned laughter. It is awful! Buchannan (whom I think is terrific!) spoke at the GOP Convention on behalf of Merrill Cook and attacked John Jacob the entire time.

Now her organization is attacking Chris Cannon and urging support for John Jacob. Perhaps she should have spoken only against the incumbent and ignored Jacob.

But, I know why she did it; polling was showing it to be a race for second place between Cook and Jacob. So by attacking Jacob they thought they could overtake him and force Chris into a primary.The radio ads in this campaign are downright dumb!

This race is getting more hype from the national media than the rank-and-file people. I consider myself politically active and yet there is not much discussion about this race. Not many signs up in Provo.Is it too early to campaign? No. Early voting starts tomorrow and with an election that only needs a few thousand votes, this one really isn't drawing much attention.

I have included the 2004 primary vote totals (source: National Journal), remember that this had a contested Governor's race in the primary and that also drove people to the polls.

2004 primary
Chris Cannon (R) 27,663 58%
Matt Throckmorton (R) 19,672 42%

My thought is that about 2/3 of the voters who voted in 2004 will vote in 2006. However, if the Senate and House start the conference on the immigration issue around June 27th, this number will increase. Low turnout is dangerous for either campaign, as you need to have a great voter identification to get your people to the polls.

My prediction: Toss-up at this moment, leans towards Cannon.