Today is deadline day for filings with the State Elections Office. I decided to look at some of the more interesting races and see what the cash on hand numbers are, and the handicapping of these races.
House District 10
Shurtliff, LaWanna-D $5,154.72
Garwood, George-R $10,952.01
If Garwood continues with this much cash-on-hand lead, this one could be a race. As South Ogden Mayor, Garwood starts ahead of any of Shurtliff’s previous opponents. Slightly Leans Democrat
House District 36
Lawrence, Susan – R $7,031.69
Riesen, Phil – D $3,819.81
This may be the race to watch, Riesen raised a good chunk of money, but now only has half of Lawrence’s cash-on-hand. Toss-up
Senate District 4
Anjewierden IV, Dirk – Registered Republican, Republican nominee – not yet filed
Jones, Pat – Registered Republican, Democrat nominee – not yet filed
Leans Democrat.
Senate District 7
Jolley, Bryce –R $10,221.91
Romero, Ross – D $32,834.22
Jolley needs to up his contributions if he wants to remain competitive. Romero is a savvy campaigner. Leans Democrat
Senate District 9
Beck, Trish – D $7,853.42
Niederhauser, Wayne –R $20,113.41
The real race here was the Republican nomination. If Beck can tap into the anti-Walmart, Sandy Gravel Pit voters and tie Niederhauser to Mayor Dolan and the Boyer Group, she may narrow the gap. But she will need more money to do that. And what has JC Powers Consulting and Jason Powers done for Niederhauser to justify $80,920.05? I think I have the wrong career path. Leans Republican
Senate District 18
Greiner, Jon J.- RINO $16,450.94
Reid, Stuart – D $13,428.20
The bulk of Greiner’s funding is himself and the UEA. Dave Thomas would have had a better chance at keeping this seat Republican. Slightly Leans Democrat.
Senate District 28
Hollingshead, Bingham Emily- D $761.95
Stowell, Dennis – R Report not yet filed
Solid Republican enough said.
9 comments:
Hear Hear!
Good analysis, but I am sure that Riesen will win
I worry about Riesen's ties to Big Furniture.
Hey, don't underestimate Emily in Senate District 28. She is working her backside off down here. Sometimes it takes more than money. Uphill battle, maybe... but she's putting her heart and soul into it. You have to at least give her credit for that.
Emily is great and has worked much harder than her opponent. She is also much brighter, and can actually spell.
Credit is underestimating her hard work. I can see Emily coming pulling an upset Iron.
True that Emily may not have much cash in hand, but I think the time she as spent on the ground could really surprise some people. Especially with how mad Republicans are with the way Stowll got the nomination.
No way. Dennis Stowell might not be the most gifted politician but he is a well known county commissioner in a county that votes nearly 30% straight Republican without even bothering to read the rest of the names on the ballot. I think that Dennis Stowell will win comfortable this election then be booted out of office by a strong Republican from Cedar City (Stowell is from Parowan) in 2010. Mrs. Hollingshead is a very nice lady and would be a great Senator but she has too many adverse dynamics to overcome in this district. I realize that she is working very hard but I lived in Cedar City up until January of this year and I can promise you that the Republican Party is firmly entrenched there.
Those Iron County Democrats have been putting on a show. They are working together. You see their stuff everywhere. What's going on?
Larry Daniel and Emily Hollingshead took over the leadership of the Iron County Democrats about 2 years ago, and have been building a strong organization ever since. These two are unique in that they are both very active in their LDS communities, they are very active in the Democratic party, and they are working hard in their respective campaigns to get the word out.
What is going on is they are working very hard to show the voters there should be a choice, and that "one party rule" is not the best way to run a government.
Hard to say how this will all turn out, but I'm not giving up on them. It has been fun to watch them emerge in Utah politics. This won't be the last we see of either of them.
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